A statewide 卡尔说话 survey of Californians likely to vote in the Nov. 8 general election reveals overwhelming support for three ballot measures: legalizing marijuana (Proposition 64), legislative transparency (Proposition 54), and additional restrictions on firearms and ammunition (Proposition 63).
可能的选民被问及他们对今年秋天加州面临的17项提案中的13项的看法。 By their responses, it seems that most propositions are headed for victory, but two that fell within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 7 percentage points are too close to call:
- 第62号提案将废除死刑，代之以无假释可能的终身监禁，45%的人反对，37%的人赞成。
- 第67号提案禁止在零售场所使用一次性塑料袋，45%的人赞成，39%的人反对。
The 卡尔说话 survey of 619 likely voters was conducted Oct. 7-13.
至于总统竞选，希拉里·克林顿（Hillary Clinton）似乎已经准备好在加州击败唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）。
Clinton, the Democrat, leads her Republican opponent in the 卡尔说话 poll by 61 percent to 25 percent, with the remaining 14 percent of likely voters favoring Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson or Green Party candidate Jill Stein, or remaining “undecided.”
在美国参议院竞选中，受访者支持加州司法部长卡玛拉·哈里斯的比例为48%，支持众议员洛丽塔·桑切斯的比例为24%。 这两位民主党人正在争夺长期在任的芭芭拉·博克瑟（Barbara Boxer）空出的参议院席位。
“The most interesting finding of the survey is simply the number of propositions that look poised to pass,” says David Barker, director of 萨克拉门托州’s Institute for Social Research (ISR) and its 卡尔说话 Public Opinion Research Center. “Historically, it has been easier to defeat a proposition than to pass one.”
The following ballot measures all got a thumbs-up from the 卡尔说话 survey:
- Proposition 51 (school construction bond) – yes, up 56 percent to 21 percent
- Proposition 52 (hospital fees) – yes, up 52 percent to 18 percent
- Proposition 55 (income tax on high earners) – yes, up 58 percent to 21 percent
- Proposition 56 (tobacco tax increase) – yes, up 62 percent to 26 percent
- Proposition 57 (early parole consideration for people convicted of nonviolent felonies) – yes, up 61 percent to 16 percent
- Proposition 58 (removing restrictions to bilingual education) – yes, up 59 percent to 21 percent
- Proposition 59 (campaign finance) – yes, up 47 percent to 19 percent
- Proposition 60 (condom requirement) – yes, up 50 percent to 31 percent
- Proposition 66 (streamline death penalty procedures) – yes, up 51 percent to 20 percent
卡尔说话 没有对第53号提案（税收债券限制）、第61号提案（州药品价格上限）和第65号提案（随身携带的袋子销售）进行民意调查。
California Speaks (卡尔说话), the new statewide public-opinion polling project of ISR, is the only probability-based survey panel in the state that focuses on the attitudes and perceptions of California’s residents.
Since its 2015年8月 launch, 卡尔说话 has surveyed Californians about their attitudes regarding higher education, water use, and politics. 即将进行的调查将询问加州居民有关移民政策、干旱和电子烟使用等问题。
ISR plans to launch a 萨克拉门托-centric version of 卡尔说话 to further amplify the voices of local residents on local issues.
For more about the Institute for Social Research at 萨克拉门托州 and the 卡尔说话 Opinion Research Center: csus.edu/isr/卡尔说话. 关注Twitter @CalSpeaksPoll。 – 迪克西•里德